Will the Iran War Kill “Return-to-Office” Mandates?

If you ask many employees what the worst part of their workday is, the chances are they’ll tell you it’s their commutes.

In a 2023 report from Buffer, 98% of people said they want to work remotely at least part of the time. In the same year, the Pew Research Center found that 71% of respondents said remote working was better for their work and personal lives. 1

Despite many employees wanting to work remotely, business leaders have other plans. Amy Coleman, Microsoft’s Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer, said that their data shows that, when employees work together in an office setting, they’re “more energized, empowered, and deliver stronger results.” 2

The CEO of AT&T, John Stankey, also told Time Magazine that having employees back in the office is necessary for their business. “Given the fact that we are now investing in significant projects, we need to be shoulder to shoulder, working dynamically every day,” he said.

Business leaders may want their employees to get back into the office, but fuel shortages may make this impossible.

Many people on social media have speculated that we’ll soon see “energy lockdowns.” The idea is that if fuel reserves continue running dry, governments will do as much as they can to limit consumption, including implementing COVID-style lockdowns.

Most of these claims come from influencers. One TikTok video suggests that energy lockdowns are “COVID 2.0,” while another video warns viewers to “get ready” because “energy lockdowns are coming.”

Are energy lockdowns fact or fantasy?

In reality, so far, no countries have implemented lockdowns as strict as those seen during the pandemic. India’s government directly dismissed claims that the country would be putting energy lockdowns in place.

Still, there is some truth to these claims. A recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) recommends immediate actions that countries should take in response to the global oil crisis. One of the first suggestions is that people should “work from home where possible.” 3

Some countries have directly mandated employees to work from home. According to Business Insider, government offices in the Philippines are being told to implement flexible working arrangements. The Vietnamese government also told domestic businesses to allow people to work from home to save fuel.

The price of gas is making commuting challenging for Americans

Although other countries have begun encouraging workers to stay at home, it’s still business as usual in the US.

For many working Americans, driving to work is hitting their pockets hard. Patrick de Haan, CEO of the app GasBuddy, stated on X that gas prices “aren’t likely to drop back fully down to pre-war prices until later this year.”

Experts from the business consultancy firm Korn Ferry told Inc. that employees will be reluctant to come back to the office as a result of these increasing prices. They said that driving could “cost over $100 daily for a worker who commutes from a distance.”

Those figures may represent a worst-case scenario, but they aren’t as outlandish as they seem considering that gas-guzzling SUVs and trucks account for the majority of cars in the US (41% and 12%, respectively). 4

In a recent post on the r/remoteworking subreddit, some Redditors speculated that work-from-home mandates may be necessary as a result of high gas prices. “If gas becomes too expensive and a company can have their workers work at home, I don’t see why it couldn’t happen,” said one Reddit user.

Other Redditors were more pessimistic. One lamented that work-from-home mandates will only happen “when there’s leadership in charge who cares about people’s well-being and the economy.”

Alternatives to working from home

If businesses are desperate for employees to get back into the office, they could try to mitigate the impact of high gas prices in other ways.

In their report, the IEA also suggested that drivers look to car-sharing as a way to combat rising gas prices and fuel shortages. Back in 2007, Americans also faced high gas prices, prompting many workers to carpool instead of driving by themselves.

Some online commentators believe that, instead of mandating employees to work from home, companies may encourage them to carpool. One suggested that management could “create an intranet wiki to help people find a carpool partner.”

Of course, carpooling is only a solution for workers who live in relatively close proximity to each other. For those who are far away from the office and other coworkers, the only option is to bite the bullet and pay the hefty gas prices to make it to work.

Whether companies backtrack on return-to-office mandates likely depends on how long the war lasts.

President Trump has repeatedly stated that negotiations with Iran are ongoing and that his administration is close to making a deal that will end the war, despite Iranian officials denying these claims.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright also acknowledged that Americans will have to contend with high gas prices “for a few more weeks,” but said that he expects prices to drop below $3 by the summer.

Many Americans are less optimistic that we’ll see an end to the conflict any time soon. Justin Thaemert, a registered Republican who owns an auto repair shop in central Minnesota, told USA Today that “everybody’s kind of tightening their belts,” as prices soar. Regarding an end to the war, Thaemert said: “I’ll believe it when I see it.”

The Washington Post recently reported that the Pentagon is preparing for “weeks of ground operations” in Iran, further casting doubt on the odds of the war ending soon.

Americans have been facing elevated living costs since before the war started, and even workers with side hustles are using their extra income to pay for essentials. If Americans also have to account for weeks or months of high gas prices, some may be priced out of commuting to the office before fuel costs stabilize.

For many working Americans, their central complaint about return-to-office policies—regardless of gas prices—is that the higher-ups have become out of touch with their everyday realities.

The data shows that Americans want to work remotely, and many of them claim they’re more productive when they’re doing their jobs at home. 5 If many are required to drive to the office while paying over $100 to fill up their tanks, they’ll likely take that as further confirmation of how little their managers are listening to them.

It’s still too early to say whether “return-to-office” mandates will become a casualty of the Iran war, but if businesses continue to ignore the demands of their employees, then their workers will only become more resentful.